Counterterrorism efforts around the world hit peak levels this past week. The flurry began with reports last week of potential “Mumbai Style” (not to be confused with “Hunan Style” which would be breaded and deep-fried) terrorist attacks in Britain, France, Germany and maybe the U.S. The pace thickened with several significant counterterrorism actions. Here is a quick recap. I may be missing some events so chime in if I left something out.
- Background: July 2010: A German citizen of Afghan origin from Hamburg was captured in Afghanistan. Prior to his capture, Ahmed Sidiqi had traveled to Waziristan and received weapons training.
- Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2010: German officials believe up to 70 Germans had undergone training in Pakistan and up to 40 fought in Afghanistan. German nationals have been reported leaving Europe to join the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
- Saturday, Oct. 2, 2010: A French citizen of Algerian origin, Ryan Hannouni, was arrested in Italy near the Naples train station allegedly carrying bomb-making materials.
- Saturday, Oct. 2, 2010: Kenyan anti-terrorism units detain a German convert to Islam near Mombasa. The German, Sascha Alessadro Bottcher, penned a letter to his mother saying he “would never return alive” and allegedly wanted to join al Shabaab in Somalia. Kenyans deported him back to Germany on Tuesday, October 5. (This one’s probably unrelated but still interesting)
- Sunday, Oct. 3, 2010: U.S. State Department issues a travel advisory for Europe warning of potential terror attacks in European cities.
- Monday, Oct. 4, 2010: Between three and eight German Nationals were killed in a drone stike in the town of Mir Ali, FATA, Pakistan. “The militants were said to be members of Jehad al-Islami and their deaths follow reports that a group of jihadists from Hamburg is at the center of an al Qaeda plot for coordinated terrorist attacks in European cities.”
- Tuesday, Oct. 5, 2010: French police arrest 12 people in two separate raids. Three are suspected of providing false papers for jihadists returning from Afghanistan, while eight are being held for trafficking firearms and explosives. The contact information for three of the arrested men came from the cell phone of Ryan Hannouni, caught in Naples on Saturday, Oct. 2.
- Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2010: French authorities issue a travel warning to their citizens that the risk of a terrorist attack in Britain is high. (Ohh the French, nothing hurts worse than a retaliatory travel warning, take that Britain.)
Wow, so what do we make of this? Here are some of my thoughts and questions.
1) Significantly improved counterterrorism efforts
Yes, I believe recent events illustrate massive improvement in counter terrorism. I know, I should stay with the “Terrorism Fear Posse” (TFP for short). But, this week’s actions represent a global disruption effort across at least seven or more countries; hitting operational safe havens with drone strikes, rolling up known al Qaeda logisticians, and preemptively arresting those that can facilitate foreign fighter returnees from AFPAK. This past week, effective information sharing between multiple countries produced rapid action against a decentralized al Qaeda related threat. Finally, we are getting there.
True, there could still be an attack (in fact, there will ultimately be another attack in the West, we need to accept that). But deliberate, simultaneous CT actions in Pakistan, France, Britain, and Germany will put any terrorist plot that might be in motion into disarray. I see this recent counter terrorism flurry as a positive sign. We’re much closer to defeating al Qaeda. However, one last step remains, the most challenging one; derailing al Qaeda recruitment.
2) Lessons learned in countering violent extremism
Al Qaeda and affiliated groups will survive as long as they can replenish their recruitment pool. Countering violent extremism (CVE) and disrupting al Qaeda recruitment remains the biggest challenge. German national villages emerging in Pakistan. German nationals training and fighting in Afghanistan to then return and attack in Europe. Big problems!
Why German nationals? Some are radical converts but most are of Turkish descent from what I’ve read. The UK, Germany and France provide forces to ISAF in Afghanistan. Does this really radicalize such a large number of European recruits? If so, why so many Germans; more than Brits and French it seems?
I don’t know the answer to these questions but I do wonder how each country’s approach to CVE has affected their indigenous recruitment to al Qaeda. From my limited knowledge, it appears each country chose a different CVE strategy post 9/11. The Brits established relationships, funded organizations, allowed open dialogue and tried to work with Muslim groups to build bridges. France constructed an organized council of Muslim groups tied directly into the government. Meanwhile, Germany appears to have rejected any and all dialogue; banning entire Muslim groups from the country and disengaging from vulnerable populations.
I don’t know enough to accurately gauge how Germany’s CVE approach relates to the current surge in German recruitment, but I do believe the U.S. should examine these three countries to identify the risks and rewards of utilizing different CVE techniques in the States.
3) The government had to issue travel warnings
Stop crying! The media and public bashing of the U.S. government for issuing a European travel warning is ridiculous. They have to issue a warning. If they don’t issue the warning and an attack occurs, then the American public would be outraged that the government wasn’t “doing anything” or “wasn’t aware” of the terrorist threat.
“Well, it was too vague, what should I do, wawawawa…”
Look if the U.S. government knew there was a terrorist plot at a specific place, on a specific day, at a specific time, they wouldn’t issue a warning. They would just go stop the plot.
So, stop crying about the warnings, the government is doing the best they can, and they are getting a lot better at counterterrorism. So be happy, not angry!