My latest installment of the “Smarter Counterterrorism” series at FPRI was just released – “ISIS Rise After al Qaeda’s House of Cards“. It took me a little while longer than I anticipated to get this post together as things have been changing quickly the past month. Those breaking for ISIS and leaving al Qaeda’s network of affiliates have been significant. Here is an excerpt of this latest installment where I propose three future scenarios of how jihadi groups might go in the future.
“The outcome from Zawahiri’s retribution has been surprisingly to ISIS advantage. Rather than punishing ISIS and regaining authority over the global jihad, Zawahiri and al Qaeda may soon become the second largest jihadist organization in the world. Angered by Zawahiri’s betrayal and admiring of ISIS commitment to pursue an Islamic state, what were once thought to be al Qaeda Central affiliates are openly declaring allegiance to ISIS emir Baghdadi. As seen in Figure 4, jihadist groups across North Africa and the Middle East have switched allegiances largely along the lines of the Iraq 2003-2009 foreign fighter distribution from Figure 3 in Part 3. While al Shabaab in Somalia has reaffirmed its support for Zawahiri and ‘Old Guard’ al Qaeda, the majority of contested affiliates have swung to ISIS’s favor. Ansar al Shariah in both Tunisia and Libya appear to be far more in ISIS camp. The younger generation of jihadis in AQAP/Ansar al Sharia in Yemen have sided up with ISIS (See Figure 6) even pushing at times in social media for AQAP’s emir al-Wuhayshi to shift his support from Zawahiri to Baghdadi – I expected a transition, but this is occurring at a pace far quicker than I anticipated. Zawahiri’s plan has backfired and his status has never been so diminished. “
An important note with this Part 4 on future jihad scenarios. I do not believe that the al Qaeda affiliates and upstart jihadi groups are as structured in reality in the way the media and the West might have one believe. These groups are morphing weekly and are populated with young twenty somethings who are also confused by Syria infighting. Ultimately, these dopey young men may not always know or agree about what group they are in. Omar Hammami had similar challenges after breaking with Shabaab. I don’t think these groups are particularly well defined, are certain about their own membership and at the same time, many of these groups may not even exist in a year. Old AQ affiliates and new upstarts are very malleable, so we shouldn’t get to hung up on exact organizational structure. Its more a swarm of like-minded subsets right now than well defined jihadi organizations.
Also, if interested in the graphics that were used in the FPRI post, I’ll post the scenarios from Part 4 here with a quick excerpt. Note, this is only part of the article from FPRI and only charts from Part 4. If you would like to download a copy of these charts, just right click on the chart and it will open in this window or in a separate window so you can download them.
- Updated Fractures Map – March 2014
First, I updated my fractures map from February and here is my new estimate of the situation amongst global jihad. The big changes come from allegiances emerging within AQIM and I believe more allegiances between younger jihadis in Yemen.
- Scenario #1: ISIS Replaces al Qaeda as the Global Leader of Jihad
The first scenario I offered in the article is ISIS running the table on al Qaeda and securing loyalty from the second generation of jihadis that fought in Iraq (See Part 3 here). Here is a chart for what that future scenario might look like.
- Scenario #3: Dissolving Into Regional Nodes
Another possibility is that all jihadi groups slowly move away from notions of global al Qaeda resulting in regional nodes which are still connected but with only light connections between all groups. See Part 4 of the series for a full explanation.