Selected Wisdom

I NEED YOUR HELP!

Since joining the blogosphere last fall, I’ve been amazed by the overwhelming amount of alternative information and thought provoking analysis available on terrorism issues.  I’ve also heard repeated calls for national security crowdsourcing.  On this issue, I oscillate back-and-forth between, “It’s possible, there are tons of smart people out there” to “it’s not feasible, terrorism is too complex an issue to predict.”  I want national security crowdsourcing to work, but can it really happen?  Thus a challenge, an experiment, a poll!

On Monday, I asserted that al Qaeda must develop a near term strategy to remain relevant. While I have my own opinions on AQ’s strategy, the only thing I am certain of is that I alone will not correctly predict AQ’s plans.  So today, I ask the smartest folks in terrorism, you the “crowd”, can we collectively anticipate what AQ will do during this critical period?  The question:

“What will be al Qaeda’s strategy from the summer of 2011 through the end of 2012?”

I ask for your help in two ways:

1. Take three minutes and answer 11 questions. Click on the following link and answer these questions on AQ’s strategy.
   Click here to take survey
   I timed the poll to take less than three minutes. Don’t think to hard, go with your gut, and fire away.
   
2. Forward the link to anyone you know interested in terrorism issues. After voting, please forward the poll link to anyone you know that is interested in terrorism.  Here is the direct web link for those that might want to copy and paste: (https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/selectedwisdomAQstrategy) All are welcome, the more that answer the better.  Experts, novices, government folks, military, private sector, you name it.  I need everyone’s input.  Crowdsourcing can only be effective if there’s a “Crowd” providing answers.

What do you get for participating?  The collective insights of all those that vote.  I designed the poll in hopes of illuminating what we agree on, where we disagree, and how we might collectively determine the best way to defeat AQ. Here’s some past poll results as an example.

Thanks in advance to all those that voted and forwarded the link!  I hope to start publishing the results in about 10 days.

I don’t want to wear out readers.  But for those that are interested, here’s a little more background on my goals in the poll’s design.

• Try to capture all major possibilities- I wanted the responses to be as broad as possible.
• Examine all of AQ’s major factors- Ideology, safe havens, leaders, affiliates, financing, CT options.
• Design the survey for everyone- No one should be excluded.  All are welcome and eligible to vote.  I want the opinions of anyone willing to take 3 minutes or less. Crowdsourcing asserts that collectively we will all average each other out.  So more voters equals better results.
• Capture where people agree and where they disagree- At the end of the poll, I ask some questions related to education, profession and international experience.  I don’t want nor need people’s personal information.  However, if I can collect enough responses, I would like to see if experts vote differently than non-experts, if government folks agree with academics, if those with international experience and backgrounds have a different perspective from those based strictly in the U.S, etc.  The goal is that we all learn from each other.