During the Post UBL polls #1 and #2, voters were asked “What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death?”. One of the options was “AQ Central loses its chief sponsor; the Haqqani Network”; an option chosen by only a few.
Fazal Saeed Haqqani, a commander in the Kurram tribal region, separated from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and formed the Tehrik-e-Taliban Islami, Geo News channel reported. Haqqani told the media that he had taken this step to protest suicide attacks on mosques and civilians.
The channel quoted its sources as saying that Haqqani earlier led TTP fighters in Kurram Agency and had step up training centres in several areas. In the past, Haqqani’s associates kidnapped people and kept them in their training centres.
They would then kill their captives or release them after being paid ransom, the channel reported.
Observers said the move by Haqqani could be part of efforts by the government and security forces to engineer a split in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is led by Hakimullah Mehsud.
Several months back, my guess was the Haqqani’s would not continue to protect an AQ Central after Bin Laden’s death. And last month’s Zawahiri demise prediction is predicated on shift’s in the Haqqani support of AQ Central:
The Haqqani network suffered tremendously from drone operations and must decide whether harboring AQ post-UBL is worth the costs. I’m guessing the Haqqani network will provide support for at least 6 more weeks before changing their position with regards to Zawahiri.
I’m starting to doubt my prediction date for other reasons, but that’s a separate post.
Many questions and I would like to get your thoughts:
Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey, the world’s leading questionnaire tool.