A recent NPR story turned me onto a great new website called Pundit Tracker. I love the website and what they are trying to do. Pundit Tracker is:
“bringing accountability to the prediction industry”
I pray that Pundit Tracker begins tracking the predictions of CT pundits – a topic of particular interest here at this blog. Maybe I’ll help them do it.
If interested in the topic, listen to the following NPR broadcast “The Pundit Tracker” where Pundit Tracker founder Sanjay Ayer explains their purpose and how they’ll go about measuring expert predictions.
And for good fun, check out their coverage of Jim Cramer, which they seem to have designated as target #1. (I must admit, I like Jim Cramer for his entertainment value.)
For those reading the blog from time to time, you’ll notice Sanjay Ayer mention several indicators of Tetlock’s “Hedgehogs” – blowhard overconfident pundits.
If you are really into expert analysis and its applications in government, you can really bore yourself to tears with my lengthy take here at this link.
re: Financial predictions-if you are reading or hearing about it from any third party outlet (Cramer, Money Magazine, etc,..), its too late!