Seventeen months ago, I attempted to use crowdsourcing to survey the ‘crowd’ and see if we could collectively predict what will happen to al Qaeda and the world of terrorism after the death of Usama Bin Laden. The primary question I asked on January 2, 2011 was:
What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL) death for the global jihadi movement?
Five months later, on May 2, 2011 (one year ago today), U.S. forces killed Bin Laden in Pakistan. His death triggered a crowdsourcing experiment which re-issued the same question above gathering several hundred responses from terrorism experts and enthusiasts around the world. My thanks to all participants as your inputs generated significant insights not only about UBL, al Qaeda and the future of terrorism, but provided the basis for today’s assessment:
One year after Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL) death, what has happened with respect to terrorism and al Qaeda?
A year ago, I presented a complex set of questions to the crowd in hopes of teasing out a collective prediction on many different aspects of al Qaeda’s future without its founder. Today, I ask you to respond to a survey assessing what has happened to al Qaeda over the past year. If you have the interest and the time, please click the button here to cast your opinions on the current state of al Qaeda:
Click here to take survey
Again this year, all interested in the topic are welcome to participate. No experience, education or knowledge is required. Nor do you need to have voted last year. With crowdsourcing, the more the better! What do you get for your contributions? The collective insights of all voters and analytical comparison to last year’s collective predictions.
Unlike last year’s survey, this year’s survey consists mostly of dichotomous questions that directly assess the component questions I asked respondents last year. I believe this year’s survey will be easier for respondents to answer and much faster to complete (Probably 3-5 minutes). Additionally, After many of these questions, I’ll ask you how confident you are in your response. The goal with the confidence questions is to identify a) what issues we are collectively confident about and b) what questions we are collectively less confident about – suggesting the need for further research.
Lastly, if you know of people interested in terrorism studies and al Qaeda, please forward this link to them.
Thanks to all who contribute and I’ll begin publishing the results in the coming weeks. Here’s a sample question for those that are curious: