Hammami Archives - Selected Wisdom

May 8, 2013 by Clint

Is Omar Hammami dead in Somalia? – Evaluating Information Sources

Yesterday afternoon, the twittersphere broke into a brief flurry over the fate of Omar Hammami. The claim retweeted across Twitter was that Omar was killed. Hhhhmmm, I had wondered about Omar’s fate this weekend but the reporting seemed a bit strange. Here is where I’ve tracked the sourcing for this claim and if anyone knows other/better sources for this claim, please post them in the comments below.

Source - MyPetJawa first detected it from a tweet which said “Ommar Hamammi, aka al-Amriki — America’s Jihadist in Somalia is dead, said Foud Shangole, al-Shabaab’s chief operation”. All of the other tweets I followed seemed to go back to this source. Today, I’ve heard from some others that Bar-Kulan broadcast this claim. (Update 1600 May 8)

The claim from Bar-Kulan (Updated 1600 May 8) didn’t seem to make sense so I decided to fall back on my training to make my bet on Omar’s fate. When evaluating information sources, I was taught to examine these factors to assess validity and reliability.

Motivation – Why is the source providing the information? What does the source of the information stand to gain by disclosing the event? If its a news outlet, then its readers and having a scoop which leads interested persons to advertisers. If its a political group or a terrorist organization, a myriad of options could be multi-fold.
Competency - Is the source of the information sufficiently capable of knowing and/or understanding the information they are provided? The Internet is filled with both competent and incompetent sources.
Process - How was the information acquired? Through what process did the information get from its beginnings to me? Can I follow the chain of information to see how the source knows the information? This is where primary and secondary sources come into play. In general, the belief is that primary sources are better than secondary sources. However, as anyone that has ever watched local TV news interviews can tell you, there are lots of incompetent or problematically motivated primary sources. Likewise, there can be secondary sources that more accurately correlate multiple primary sources and combine it with analysis to provide a more accurate perspective on events – I have a group of these knowledge ninjas I rely on.
Product - What type of information product is it? How does the type of information product influence its validity as a source? The information came in as text, video, audio…are there pictures? Depending on the event and the context, the type of information product may matter significantly to its credibility.
Performance History – What is the reliability and validity of information from this source over time? Does the information source provide good information on a routine basis?
General validity – In the context of the issue, does the information source provide information that makes sense in the context of the event?

Based on these factors, here is my quick assessment of this source.

Source – Bar-Kulan (Updated 1600 8 May) or any Somali news outlet for that matter -

Motivation – I’m guessing by the tweets that these accounts are more of the journalist type and that the motivation is getting a scoop out in the public. Media outlets and scoops from the Horn in general tend to be highly unreliable…here’s a similar claim about Hammami’s fate from last year. Also, the other tweets in this feed seem to be very focused on general Somalia issues and sometimes critical of the U.S. from what I can tell. The goal is to drive traffic, not get it right.
Competency – Bar-Kulan (Updated 1600, 8 May) seems to follow Somalia issues in depth but I don’t have any real evidence to know why this source is particularly informed on Hammami’s fate other than its an interesting news item for the time. (Updated 1600, 8 May)
Process – This is completely unclear. Did Bar-Kulan (Updated 1600, 8 May) interview Shangole? How did he know this information? Or is it just rumor? But why wouldn’t Shabaab just put this information out from its own sources? This is a distant secondary source at best.
Product – The product is text – no pictures, video, etc. This doesn’t match with other claims that come from Shabaab who tends to use pictures for big events like this.
Performance History – For this source, I have none. If anyone knows the track record of original sourcing of Bar-Kulan (Updated 1600, 8 May), I’d be interested.
General Validity – The claim does make sense since Omar himself tweeted that he was on the run, surrounded and in trouble. But, I’d need a lot more detail to feel comfortable with the claim.

Assessment – I have no reason to put much faith in this claim.

Here are some of my other thoughts on these claims.

So if the source is Shangole, let’s say, why would Shangole want the information out? To show Shabaab’s competence in defeating one of their adversaries? Doubtful, they’ve bungled the Hammami thing for a year. But I would guess that if Shabaab were subtly putting this information out, it’s because they want to draw Omar back out and gain further justification for killing him and maybe see if he’s still in the area.
I won’t believe anything till I see pictures – Omar has survived a great many close calls. I would expect this event to be accompanied with pictures.
Omar’s status could still change at any minute – Reports from both Omar and the media suggest Omar is surrounded and on the run. Even with my assessment below, he could be killed at anytime. And, I’ve not heard anyone talk about the possibility that Omar could die from wounds suffered during the assassination attempt. Omar was shot in the throat in rural Somalia and may be on the run. That wound could easily get infected and cause some problems over time. He would not be the first person in Somalia to die from complications related to wounds.
Why hasn’t the Shabaab crowd been going crazy on Twitter if Omar was killed? I would expect the Shabaab supporters to be chiming in and especially the MYC in Kenya. They’ve long been Omar haters.
Why hasn’t Afghani, Robow or Aweys come to save Omar? Omar has boasted about these three being anti-Godane and Afghani appealed directly to Zawahiri for removal of Godane. Yet, these guys, if they support Omar, do it only behind the scenes. Ohhh, Omar, are you wondering where you are in this Game of Thrones? If Omar bashes Godane in public on Twitter, he’s a useful pawn for Afghani, Robow and Aweys. But, if these guys publicly back Omar, they could be in poor standing with both Shabaab and al Qaeda. Likewise, if Godane kills Omar, well, that would prove the allegations of Afghani about Godane’s corruption. So for Afghani, Robow, Aweys, “Omar lives – they win, Omar dies – they win.” Omar, there is another option, you could come home and turn yourself in before being betrayed on both sides.
The better sourcing on Omar’s fate is coming from those that cover the area where he is seeking refuge – the Rahanweyn clan. Specifically, the Raxanreeb.com website which covers events surrounding Omar’s trials and tribulations. While I don’t trust any Somali news sources outright, this article says that Omar’s assassination attempt has stirred up a ruckus around the area of Raama Caday, Somalia, which makes sense. Supposedly Shabaab has tried to cut communications to the area and that would explain why Omar has been quieter. This location would make sense as well in the context of Omar’s tweeting of being in Bay region, previously being in and around Merca, and Shabaab not being able to get militias from Gedo and Juba engaged to go after Omar. See the map below for what I think is a VERY rough estimate of the situation. Take a grain of salt (or a bag of it) with everything I write. But, this source would suggest Omar would be in a valid location, but a precarious one dependent on Rahanweyn protection and with few options.

So what is my take? Well, if I had to guess, and the situation could change at any minute, I’d make the following guess on Omar’s fate as of now. (Taking a lesson from Nate Silver, I’ll make my prediction based on probabilities.

75% chance he’s still alive – unless I see more signals and verification, I’m not believing he’s been killed. I think Shabaab will be quick to take credit if they get him.
20% chance he’s dead – whether he died yesterday or not, he’s still in an incredibly vulnerable position. They’ve already tried to kill him a few weeks back, they could get him at any minute.
5% chance Omar is and always has been part of a Zombie vanguard operating in Somalia. This would explain why he continues to escape death – he was never alive in the first place.

Here’s my crazy map below. My recommendation – look for competent sources with access to the area highlighted in yellow as they will probably have the best information on Omar’s fate. However, don’t just listen to me, use lots of sources, and tell me where I’m wrong, I’ll listen.

May 5, 2013 by Clint

Did Shabaab get Omar Hammami in Somalia?

When I last posted about Omar Hammami in Somalia, he had just tweeted that he had been shot in the throat by a Shabaab assassin. As I had mentioned,

If there is going to be a war inside Shabaab, I’m guessing it will happen soon.

Well, Omar went quiet on Twitter for a little while and from what I gather (could be a bit off on this since I don’t speak Somali), a Shabaab contingent surrounded the Rahanweyn village Omar was hiding in and turned off the cell tower to cut off communications around the area. A few days later, Omar popped back up with a few new tweets describing the stand off between he and Shabaab and his run into the forest to escape Shabaab’s manhunt. Again, Omar went quiet for a while before firing off these two tweets on May 3 and April 30.

Omar suggests that Shabaab has lost the initiative, that the people of Somalia are on his side and that the Shabaab militias of Gedo and Jubba aren’t really interested in going into Rahanweyn territory and stirring up a ruckus.

Since May 3, no word from Omar. So…

What happened to Omar? Did he escape Shabaab’s grasp yet again or are Omar’s tweets really just his hopes for protection, redemption and survival?
Are Shabaab’s militias really disobeying Godane? Shabaab has launched a couple of suicide bombing attacks on Mogadishu over the past few weeks but these have mostly killed civilians from what I gathered. Is Shabaab’s indiscriminate killing of civilians and their hunting of Omar finally eroding Godane’s power? Omar claimed in another tweet that many key Shabaab leaders are against Godane. But how would we know if this is true?

I guess only time will tell…or maybe it won’t. The Twittersphere has been quiet. Will we hear from Omar again?

April 26, 2013 by Clint

Shabaab in Somalia tries to kill Omar Hammami

Many have wondered how long Omar Hammami could freely bash al Shabaab in Somalia without suffering repercussions. Well, today was the day that Shabaab tried to end Omar’s public bashing on Twitter. Omar just posted an update early this afternoon claiming Shabaab just attempted to kill him.

Later, he followed up with some pictures to prove the assassination attempt. Check out his Twitter feed if you want to see the pics. Again, Omar used one of his 9 lives to survive the incident and apparently Omar thinks this might be the straw that opens up full warfare between Hammami, Hammami’s protectors and al Shabaab as he told @intelwire here in this tweet.

While most are not likely surprised that Shabaab would try to kill Hammami, this assassination attempt by Shabaab does suggest a few things.

Hammami should fear for his life – Despite Shabaab’s claims in a previous propaganda piece that Omar’s life was never threatened , today confirms that Omar’s fears were justified.
Shabaab will kill foreign fighters to Somalia - There has always been some doubts about Hammami’s claims that Godane’s Shabaab would kill off foreign fighters to Somalia. Well, today confirms that Shabaab has no restraint in going after those that challenge the group’s leadership.
Omar’s social media rants were getting to Shabaab – While Shabaab has tried to play it cool for more than a year, today proved that Omar’s public criticisms of Shabaab really do bother the group.
Open conflict between different Shabaab factions in Somalia – Omar has been talking of a war within Shabaab for some time. Ibrahim al-Afghani’s public letter to Zawahiri a couple weeks back strongly signaled fractures in Shabaab’s ranks. Now a public assassination attempt against a well known American foreign fighter. If there is going to be a war inside Shabaab, I’m guessing it will happen soon. I’m not sure what more posturing can occur without the schism escalating to full blown conflict.

April 14, 2013 by Clint

Shabaab’s betrayal of Omar Hammami – In English this time!

After being frustrated by the Arab world ignoring his revelations about the bad behavior of Shabaab in Somalia, Omar Hammami posted an English version of his demise via a Twitter link today. In January, I suffered through some miserable Arabic translation nightmares to write the post “Hammami Reveals Deceit, Dissension and Death in Shabaab and al Qaeda!“, but now all can read of his demise and betrayal by al Shabaab in the English version at this link.

Back in January, Omar hoped to reach the Muslim world and maybe al Qaeda by publishing his latest troubles in Arabic hoping to appeal to that audience – since his previous YouTube calls for help broadcast in a mix of English and Arabic fell on deaf ears in the Arab World. Again, it appears Omar’s Arabic revelations from January didn’t find much audience amongst al Qaeda’s mainstream. However, Omar’s American audience, despite this being Omar’s home country which he despises, has read and paid attention to Omar’s plight. In January, Omar didn’t seem thrilled about myself and others in the West reading his Arabic pronouncements.

But today, it appears Omar has changed his tune, reaching out in English this time. Omar so desperately wants an Arab audience, but maybe he’s realized his biggest audience is in his native country. Here’s some clips from Omar’s English version of the document.

On Godane (Abu Zubayr):

As for Abu Zubayr’s entrance into the whole affair, well, his background is a bit unclear because he was in Pakistan during the days of the Russian occupation and no one knows with certainty if he really participated in the Jihaad or if he just sat in Peshawar.

On Somalis and their distrust of al Qaeda:

history has proven that the Somalis generally do not want any influence from al-Qaa’idah or foreigners in their internal affairs.

On al Qaeda fomenting fractures with Shabaab as much as Shabaab creating fractures between local Somali (Ansar) vs. Foreign Fighters (Muhajirs)

It is here that I blame the brother s from al-Qaa’idah to some degree (and I mean Abu Talhah as-Sudaani, Abu ‘Abdallaah, Fazul, and an-Nabhaan) because, despite have pure intentions (as we see it, but Allaah is their Reckoner), there developed a sense of competition between them and the brothers of the Salaah ad-Diin camp.

Al Qaeda’s shift to focus on Kenya as anticipated in this document here in 2007:

Eventually, and probably because of such divisiveness, the brothers from al-Qaa’idah went to Ras Chiamboni to focus on training Kenyan Somalis to do outside operations.

On al Qaeda’s lack of strategy in Somalia:

Here I don’t know what to say about the actions of the brothers from al-Qaa’idah. They split up amongst themselves without executing any real strategy.

and on this one, I have nothing to add. See the closing of the document….

And it seems I was duped by the slogans and the pretty words, and I hadn’t yet learned the realities,

April 6, 2013 by Clint

Shabaab in Somalia publicly fractures & pressures al Qaeda

Well, I’ve been waiting for a year to see the outcome of Shabaab’s “Game of Thrones” and today a surprising public fracture emerged on the aljihad.com website. Ibrahim al-Afghani, a once senior leader of al Shabaab, close associate of Ahmed Godane and fellow member of Godane’s Isaaq clan, posted a public and direct call to Ayman al-Zawahiri asking him to intervene in Somalia and remove Godane as leader of al Shabaab.

Ibrahim al-Afghani’s public posting finally discloses the fractures I’ve been discussing for the past year. Omar Hammami, the American public relations arm for Team Robow (maybe should be renamed Task Force Robow/Aweys/Afghani), has provided ten reasons for Afghani’s public denouncement of Godane – a major development in Somalia. These are quotes from Omar’s tweets so if you don’t like the language, complain to Omar on Twitter.

”Dr. Ayman has to act fast and decisively b4 the jihad is destroyed and enters a deep dark tunnel”
“2 scholars are being threatened.”
“Muhajirs are being expelled and misused/mistreated.”
“Secret jails are off limits to observers.”
“Scholars and leaders can’t check on claims of torture.”
“Opportunities to open new outside fronts are purposefully neglected.”
“The wealth of islam is squandered by the amir.”
“There is no real shura and all the real actors are kept from benifitting the jihad.”
“kids w/good intentions are put in charge of op.s that go wrong and have negative fall out, &they are in charge of policing elders”
“the leader is responsible for the recent defeats and the loss of the previously unprecedented public/tribal support”

Interesting that Omar wrote these tweets in English. Why not Arabic? I’m guessing its to get word out to the West, but the solution he is seeking is not likely to come from the West. I love it that he calls some of the Shabaab members “kids”. Oh wise twenty-something Omar who joined terrorist group that betrayed him. Omar continued immediately after the above posts to assert why everyone should listen to Ibrahim al-Afghani:

Essentially, Omar explains why it must be Afghani and potentially not Robow that engages Zawahiri and brings the injustices of Godane to Zawahiri’s attention. Afghani was a Godane ally at one time, fought in Afghanistan, and comes from the same clan as Godane. Also of note, there were rumors of Afghani once replacing Godane as Emir of Shabaab. See this Critical Threats article for a longer but still short description about Afghani.

When reviewing my scenarios from last year, Scenario #1 appears to have flushed out as most accurate:

“Scenario #1: Godane kills off old AQ members & Robow affiliated foreign fighters”

Also of note are the two forces over the past year that signaled which scenario would prove most accurate:

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys who showed movement towards scenario #1 last summer , and
Ibrahim al-Afghani who showed his hand today.

Here is an update to my crazy Powerpoint chart from last year. I haven’t been tracking Raage so don’t know his status or position. I’ve put “X’s” over the scenarios that no longer make sense from last year and noted the migration of Afghani to the Aweys and Robow side. In yellow is what I anticipate as the coalition against Godane as of today.

Here are some thoughts for today and I’ll have another update in the next day or so:

What does Task Force Robow-Aweys-Godane want Zawahiri to do? - Usually these things occur behind the scenes but this is a public call to Zawahiri. Omar has suggested that communications with al Qaeda have been going through AQAP and that AQAP has gone cold on them in recent months or communicated intermittently with Godane. This puts Zawahiri in an awkward spot. Zawahiri went for a merger with Shabaab that Bin Laden would not pursue. The main hope for al Qaeda now is in Syria and Somalia is a distraction. If Zawahiri leaves Godane in, he confirms his negligence in not dealing with the Hammami situation the past year and demonstrates his naivety about formally merging with Shabaab in the first place. Dr. Z must be scratching his turbin.
A public plea at this time isn’t such a brave move - If this public call from Afghani had come last summer, it would have been a brave move. But the Afghani call coming now, after Shabaab has gotten their ass kicked incessantly since the merger, isn’t particularly brave. Shabaab lost its most important city of Kismayo, which Afghani once commanded, and I imagine he and many others have little to command under Godane at this point. Loss of turf has also likely brought folks like Afghani, Hammami, and Robow closer together as they get squeezed into Bay & Bakool. Bottom line: If Shabaab were winning, how Godane governs would not matter.
Source in Somalia again prove suspect – A year ago, several sources said that Ibrahim al-Afghani was chasing Omar around and trying to kill him in Somalia. This now seems unlikely. Again open sources from Somalia prove not credible. No surprise.
The revelations of Omar Hammami – A year ago, when Omar Hammami posted his plea video, many thought it was an anomaly amongst Shabaab’s alleged rise after aligning with al Qaeda. However, his persistent presence on Twitter has brought him supporters, probably kept him alive and turned him from goat to glamor jihadi again. However, over the long run, Omar’s postings are a double edged sword for the jihad in Somalia and foreign fighter recruitment globally. If a Westerner is considering joining Shabaab or any AQ affiliate and witnesses the absolute mess that is going on publicly, they must be crazy to join – and unfortunately jihadi foreign fighters usually are crazy.
Discussions of money - As I have mentioned in previous posts about jihad in Africa, resources and money play an important role and as Omar outlined on Twitter, how money is handed out matters a lot to these guys. While Omar and these Shabaab splinters blanket themselves in ideological cover, underneath they are really concerned about their personal power and control of resources. Jihad in Somalia – “Show me the money!”

April 3, 2013 by Clint

New Season of Shabaab’s Game of Thrones in Somalia: Hammami’s re-ascension?

A little over a year ago, Andrew Lebovich and I published a short article detailing the plight of Omar Hammami amongst al Shabaab’s Game of Thrones in Somalia. In this March 2012 piece Lebovich and I made several hypotheses:

Hammami’s plea reflected serious divisions inside Shabaab with Ahmed Godane (Abu Zubeyr) on one side and Mukhtar Robow on the other, likely supported by Sheikh Hassan Aweys.
AQAP was an important conduit to Shabaab.
Shabaab’s leader Godane killed off old Al Qaeda members, namely Fazul, in his attempts to consolidate power in Somalia and become the single conduit with al Qaeda.
Zawahiri overreached officially aligning with Shabaab and entangled al Qaeda with an ally plagued with internal dissension.

Thanks to the revelations published by Omar Hammami, these hypotheses all seem to have some merit, although some evidence is suspect or unconfirmed.

Beginning last May, Omar Hammami began a public campaign to keep himself alive in Somalia. Unable to leave Somalia and suppressed by Godane, Omar’s long-winded initial English biography revealed his belief that Godane’s Shabaab leaders were killing off dissenters in the ranks and in particular foreign fighters supporting Shabaab.

However, Omar’s initial biography left out some key details and only when he resurfaced via his Twitter account (@abumamerican) did we learn from his Arabic biography how Godane adeptly played the game of Somalia’s “Game of Thrones” securing his leadership position by killing off foreign fighters and excluding Robow from key meetings such as the oath of allegiance to al Qaeda. In January’s Arabic supplement, Omar dropped all the dirty details of the rift between local fighters and foreign fighters and the pseudo-imprisonment of he and his band of banished foreign fighters. Omar hit the Twittersphere again in January to both bash Godane’s Shabaab and sustain his public presence making it more difficult for Godane to rub out Hammami – a messy situation for a Shabaab in decline and an al Qaeda that has overreached.

Shabaab initially tried to ignore Hammami’s chatter. When Omar continued the public bashing, Shabaab took to discrediting him via a glossy product. This only emboldened Omar and finally opened the flood gates for Shabaab haters and Shabaab supporters to go full force into battle on Twitter ending and subverting the censorship imposed on al Qaeda forums when Omar defected a year ago. Two months ago, Omar appeared alone and isolated in his fight against Shabaab’s stalwart supporters. However, Shabaab dissenters have grown publicly in recent weeks and Omar appears to be fully engaged in a four-language Twitter battle against Shabaab (English, Swahili, Arabic, Somali).

Here’s my quick recap of recent proceedings. This is a quick and dirty breakdown, not all encompassing.

Team Omar’s Position:

Omar claims to be living with the Rahanweyn clan and living somewhere in Bay & Bakool provinces.
Omar and his allies on Twitter chief complaints with Godane and Shabaab are:
- Godane has taken Shabaab off the path of true jihad and created divisions between the local Shabaab (Ansar) and the foreign fighters (mujahidin).
- Permitting of qat usage and sale are against the tenets of Sharia; Shabaab apparently does this for the purpose of taxation and revenue generation.
- Godane forces taxation on people that should be exempt.
- Godane mismanages Shabaab politically, militarily and economically and is responsible for the group’s retreat.
- Godane doesn’t take the input of other key Somali jihadi leaders like Robow and Aweys into account when he governs.
- Godane imprisons those that challenge his decisions (often times foreign fighters) and those with money that potentially could challenge Godane’s authority.
- Godane has a henchmen, maybe named Dahir, who does Godane’s dirty work acting as the internal policeman snuffing out dissent.
- Omar uses the reasons cited on Twitter to justify pausing his violent jihad. Omar cites Koranic and historical justifications for quitting jihad when its not pursued justly. Team Omar claims that Robow and Aweys would share this view – although this may not be evident publicly.
- Omar has gained support from others on Twitter, enough that he is taking questions for debate on a second tier jihadi forum aljihad.com. Two months ago this would seem inconceivable, but in some weird way, Omar’s banter has rallied some that share his feelings.
- In conclusion, Omar insists that there will soon be a revolution underway internally and that the right leadership will come back to take control of the situation in Somalia and return Shabaab to prominence – or something like this. This seems to be more bravado and wishful thinking than concrete plan but we’ll see.

On the Team Godane/al Shabaab side, they continue to attack Omar and his disciples. Their chief lines of attack and allies are:

Omar is a narcissist that cannot stay in line because of his own glory seeking.
Omar exaggerates his battle prowess, importance in Shabaab, skills as a military tactician and took credit for a rap he did not write (the last one Omar admits to) – see this post here for summary.
Omar and anyone that uses Twitter is a CIA or MI-6 spy and should be imprisoned or killed.
Shabaab’s key allies on Twitter seem to be fellow members of Godane’s Isaaq clan, the Muslim Youth Center (MYC) in Kenya and a handful of ethnic Somali foreign fighters from abroad.
When Shabaab can’t get traction attacking Omar on his points about jihad, they go after his Americanism and family – yeah that’s right, they go with “Yo Mama” jokes, a key tactic of hardcore terrorists – I guess.

Omar has been boasting about an impending revolution in Somalia where the Mujahidin take back control of jihad from Godane’s influence. And today, Omar posted this:

Does this tweet represent more bolstering and bragging or an actual coup in Shabaab’s ranks? One of the reasons Omar’s support as grown is that Shabaab under Godane has been in retreat. If Shabaab were ascending rather than descending, Omar would likely be alone in his complaints.

I’ve also wondered some other things:

Did al Qaeda, either Central or in Yemen, intervene to quell this divide? After a year of disaster in their relationship with Shabaab, maybe some key AQ folks stepped in to mend this public dispute.
Has Robow re-established his own communications channel back into al Qaeda? A communication sufficient to gain their support for overtaking Godane?
Is Hammami really just the public spokesman for a Robow coup in Shabaab? This is a “Game of Thrones” after all. Maybe Hammami is just the public mouthpiece eroding Godane’s credibility in return for protection provided by the Rahanweyn clan?

Stay tuned for the next season in Shabaab’s “Game of Thrones”.

March 22, 2013 by Clint

Americans: If you join Shabaab/AQ in Somalia, you’ll probably go to jail…Shabaab jail that is!

Young American aficionados of al Shabaab and al Qaeda (Europeans too): Listen up! You probably thought that if you joined Shabaab/al Qaeda you might eventually get thrown in jail. That’s a good bet. However, you probably also thought when you got thrown in jail it would be a U.S. jail or even worse a foreign jail of a U.S. counterterrorism partner. But, you would be wrong. The two most likely results of joining al Shabaab are:

Shabaab will eventually betray you and kill you.
Shabaab will throw you in Shabaab jail…(Even worse than being in a U.S. or foreign partner prison.)

Shabaab thought Omar Hammami was being a showboat narcissist refuting them on Twitter and YouTube. But, it increasingly seems like Omar is not the only foreign fighter to be disavowed and imprisoned by Shabaab. Omar’s talk of a rift between local Shabaab members and the foreign fighter (“Muj”) seems more and more genuine each day. And, Omar is not the only foreign fighter or even American being imprisoned by Shabaab. Today, Omar revealed that the other American foreign fighter imprisoned by Shabaab may be Said Fidhin – an American from Seattle, Washington who was an essential conduit for the recruitment of Americans to Shabaab and from the Isaaq clan. Here’s a note on Fidhin from the Star Tribune:

Those who worked on the receiving end of the pipeline in Somalia, according to witnesses, are: Abshir’s uncle, Said Fidhin, a former resident of the Seattle area known as “Samatar” or “Adair,” and a taxi driver in Somalia known as “Uncle Barre.”

Here’s Omar’s update on Twitter:

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 12.20.17 PM

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 11.50.37 AM

So there you go foreign fighters! Head off to Somalia, join the call for Shabaab’s jihad. If the environment, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Somali government, or the West don’t kill you, Shabaab may, and if they don’t kill you they’ll at least throw you in jail. Wow, jihad sounds so appealing. You might go to a meeting in Barowe, find out its a set up and get thrown in Shabaab jail. As I mentioned in a previous post on Omar and the movie The Godfather, if Shabaab calls you to a private meeting, don’t show up!

Also note above that Shabaab now says that, “anyone who writes on twitter is a spy.” Too funny, Shabaab, once heralded for being groundbreaking in their use of new media, now just as scared as Western governments about leaks and trying to do information control. Shabaab claims to be boasting a pure form of Islam right? What is there to hide Shabaab – your tweets make it seem like everything is wonderful?

March 20, 2013 by Clint

Update: Omar Hammami ‘Wanted’ – worth 1/5 of a “Bin Laden”

Wow, just when I thought the Omar Hammami saga was turning boring, the U.S. State Department issued an announcement of a $5 million reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Omar. CNN reports that:

Posters and matchbooks in Somali and English emblazoned with the names and pictures of Omar Shafik Hammami and Jehad Serwan Mostafa tout rewards up to $5 million each for information leading to their arrest or conviction. Both men are on the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorists List.

Omar, dude, what do you think about this? As has been detailed at length in these blog posts (1,2,3,4,5,6,7 ,8,9,10), Omar has been on the run for about a year now – on the run from Shabaab that is. Now, Omar has apparently really gotten the attention of the U.S. government. Omar has lots of enemies hunting him, but to be honest he has also rallied a bit of support amongst the Shabaab defector crowd lately so he may not be so alone. What a mess for the Alabaman! Omar has said on Twitter many times that he would not be taken alive. So we’ll see. Will the Somalis protecting him turn him over for the money? Or will there be a full on battle between Shabaab and “Omar Hammami & the Muj”? I guess only time will tell.

At $5 million, Omar is now the highest valued American on the Most Wanted List surpassing Adam Gadahn at $1 million. As Omar said, who is more important in the world of terrorists? Those that do or those that talk? I wonder if Adam is jealous? For comparison, Omar Hammami, I guess, is worth about 1/5 of a “Bin Laden” ($25 million reward).

On a separate note, I’m glad that CNN pointed out that the Rewards for Justice program is being used in this initiative – a tool that I think has been underutilized in recent years. Good for the State Department for using this tool and I point this out to the anti-drone advocates. The Obama Administration has done and arrest-extradition and a Rewards for Justice pursuit recently. Here’s a note I wrote a few weeks back about the program.

Additionally, I think the U.S. should look to bring back and further promote the “Rewards-for-Justice” program, especially in Africa, along with drone campaigns. The program wasn’t that successful after 9/11 in Pakistan (Pashtunwali, tribal protection, etc.), but some of the new CT battefields are not like the Pakistan safe haven al Qaeda enjoyed. An increase in programs like “Rewards-for-Justice” might ease the need for drone strikes, particularly in those places where resources often trump ideology – like Africa.

So has their “Disposition Matrix” changed in recent weeks? Do you really think the reward will grab Omar from interior Somalia? If it doesn’t, then what should we do in the absence of partners in Southern Somalia?

Both officials said the Rewards for Justice Program – administered by the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security – is not involved in drone programs and the intent of the reward is to obtain information that will lead to the men’s apprehension and prosecution.

By the way, I’m pretty sure Jehad Mostafa fixed my air conditioning last summer or installed my cable box, can’t remember which.

March 18, 2013 by Clint

Shabaab Twitter Stalking “Omar Hammami & the Muj” in Somalia

In recent years, Somalia’s al Shabaab has been an early adopter of Twitter and been known in the terrorist world as a leading user of openly available social media rather than closed forums to spread its message. Many analysts saw this as a worrying sign; Shabaab tweets could radicalize previously uninfected young minds. However, Twitter, unlike other platforms, allowed for the open countering of Shabaab by the Kenyan military and the censorship of Shabaab as the group was kicked off the platform for violating terms of service (as described by @intelwire).

More recently Twitter has again undermined Shabaab as the group’s defectors, realizing the hypocrisy of the Shabaab’s words when compared to Shabaab’s actions, have taken to the social media platform to voice their frustrations. Apparently Shabaab struggles with the same problems as the U.S. government and other open democracies – controlling message.

Omar Hammami’s persistent countering of Shabaab on Twitter has likely eroded the group’s appeal amongst foreign fighters seeking to join the struggling group. Now, Hammami’s band of Twitter dissenters appears to have expanded and the “Muhajir” in Somalia have taken to the Twitterverse to express their resentment to Abu Zubayr (Godane) – Shabaab’s leader. The “Muhajir” (foreign fighters) continue exposing the rift between local Somali Shabaab members and the global foreign fighters that have joined the group only to be treated as second class. Here, @jawshan7, a Shabaab loyalist, and @abuu_haajir, a Muj dissenter, illuminate the divisions in Shabaab – in awful Twitter English.

So what does Shabaab do when foreign fighters in their midst behave badly on Twitter? The same thing American parents do to their teenagers – They take away their cell phones!

So the mighty Shabaab, rather than taking care of business on the front lines, is instead Twitter stalking its former “Muj” trying to control their speech. Ahhh, the double edged sword of Twitter.

February 19, 2013 by Clint

Shabaab Refutes Omar Hammami – Trash Talking in Somalia

The Shabaab vs. Omar Hammami “teen movie” like social media fight took another turn with Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, an e-jihadi holding a grudge against Hammami, producing a slick looking 17 page refutation of Omar Hammami’s public claims of deceit and dissension in Shabaab’s ranks.

The document entitled “Turning Away From The Truth Won’t Make It Disappear: Demystifying the Abu Mansur Saga” paints Hammami in a negative light and seems to be an overt attempt by Shabaab to do damage control after Omar’s allegations. I’ll post a few notes of interest. Abu Hamza is a good writer despite needing a lesson on writing shorter titles.

Omar published his recent revelations in Arabic but Shabaab refutes Omar in English – I assumed last month that Omar wrote his revelations about Godane’s betrayal in Arabic to try and draw sympathy and support from the Arab world after his previous English language autobiography fell flat. However, Shabaab and their spokesman Abu Hamza have refuted Omar’s allegations in English. Why? While the Arab world probably doesn’t care much about Omar, but Hamza and Shabaab get many of their foreign fighters from the West and fewer from the Gulf compared to other conflicts. Omar’s story likely hurts support from the Somali Diaspora and Shabaab needs to patch that up that pipeline by communicating their version of the story to the West.

Shabaab claims Omar has an ego problem – If Shabaab knew this, why did they only inflate his ego further by putting Omar on a public pedestal filming and broadcasting him with Shabaab’s top leaders? Shabaab did this because they wanted to flaunt the American in their ranks and jab at the West. And it backfired on them! Shabaab empowered Hammami and they brought this problem onto themselves by promoting Hammami publicly and killing off opposition in their ranks. If there is anything I believe from Omar’s account, it’s that Shabaab’s factions have killed off foreign fighters and even al Qaeda fighters at times if these individuals were a challenge to different clan leaders inside Shabaab.

Shabaab REALLY wants to patch up the divisions between local Somali fighters and foreign fighters – Omar’s claims of local vs. foreign conflicts must really hurt as Shabaab the group is going to great lengths to note that foreign fighters (Muhajirs) and local Somali Shabaab members (Ansaris). Omar’s accusations must be making waves in the foreign fighter recruitment pipeline and I wonder what the effect is in the Somali Diapora. Here’s a clip:

Screen Shot 2013-02-18 at 4.53.56 PM

Uhhh, Abu Hamza doesn’t speak for Shabaab, sort of – The author of the document says:

‘Needless to say, the views expressed here are my personal views, for which I remain liable, and do not represent those of HSM,”

Does Hamza plan on running for Congress some day? What is he a government contractor speaking at an academic conference? Why would Hamza try to cover himself like this? This likely means a couple of things. One, Shabaab doesn’t want to be seen responding to Omar because in doing so, they would be confirming that Omar hurt Shabaab. Two, the author, like Hammami during his first auto-biography, is afraid he might say something wrong in this document and later be punished. So Hamza has decided to hedge a bit.

Shabaab claims Hammami staged his video far in advance - The Shabaab response claims that Hammami staged his videos, even filmed them, a year or more in advance of their broadcast on the Internet. However, the logic behind the refutation seems to be a stretch. Essentially “a guy said he thinks he knows when the video was filmed…” The author doesn’t actually know when the video was filmed. Shabaab claims that Hammami planned the broadcast of his videos way in advance, but I believe this is a bit of projection by Shabaab. Essentially, because Shabaab plans their videos way in advance, they must think Hammami does as well.

Two bad options: Who should we believe? Shabaab or Hammami? - In typical e-jihadi dribble similar to American high school girls, the Shabaab document goes on for a good while of, “and then he sent an email to Omar, and Omar sent a text message to Hamza, who called Ahmed, and he said “Oh no you didn’t” and Omar said “oh yes I did.” The entire discussion on pages 11 & 12 are funny reading and mostly worthless banter.

The only really interesting part is that Shabaab claims Omar was on the Islamic Awakening Forum, incognito, trying to confirm his own death last summer. I assume Omar did this because he was trying to use his faked death as cover to escape Shabaab and Somalia. I guess Omar has seen one too many movies and also forgot he is an American guy running around Somalia – fairly easy to spot I would imagine. Here’s a clip from the account:

Why should we believe this very eloquent English speaker writing a second-hand account on an Internet site rather than Omar himself who is writing in the first person from his own experiences? While I think there is some truth and some falsehoods on behalf of both parties, I’m inclined to go with the primary source (Omar) over the secondary source (Hamza) until further evidence emerges. Plus, the propaganda style of Hamza in the first two pages and his dependence on hearsay weakens his argument for me.

Shabaab claims Omar wouldn’t return to the battlefield in Marka - As Omar said, he believed that foreign fighters were being deliberately killed off so why obey the orders? Shabaab claims that Rage tried to meet with Omar to work things out, but Omar didn’t show up and then sent a message pleading for his life.

“The exhaustive attempts of the Umarā were often met with disdain, eventually resulting in Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, ‘Ali Dheere’, setting up an appointment to meet Abu Mansur in order to personally discuss the problem with him.”

Shabaab claims they were going to meet with Hammami…to work things out? Hammami, who believed foreign fighters were being killed off, gets called to meet with one of the bosses and then leaves town. We’ve all seen mafia movies (Godfather, Goodfellas, etc.) and we know what happens when the boss comes to see you after you’ve screwed up. Hammami thought Shabaab leaders were killing off foreign fighters, how could he possibly work this out with Rage? I see why Omar took off.

Hammami’s post denunciation activities - Pages 14 and on describe what Omar did after posting the first video pleading for his life. I feel this portion of the document is likely quite accurate and paints a picture of a defiant Omar who made himself readily seen in public. Shabaab claims this a sign of his arrogance, which could be true, but I also see it as Omar keeping himself alive as the more he is seen in public the more difficult it is for Shabaab to kill him and not feel repurcussions.

Hamza and Shabaab label Omar a strategy novice - On this point, I agree with Hamza. Omar’s discussions of strategy falls flat when presented with the reality of al Qaeda’s situation. Omar’s pushing of Abu Musab al Suri’s strategy fails to note the apparent weaknesses of this strategy in other contexts, something Shabaab seems to recognize.

Hammami didn’t write his own rap? WHAT? MILLI VANILLI? - Wow, The most aggressive charge by Shabaab against Omar Hammami is that his YouTube rap which made him famous back in America was not actually written by Omar. Instead, the rap was written by another American foreign fighter to Shabaab. We could be in the middle of an al Qaeda-Milli Vanilli scandal.

“Worth noting here also is that the Jihadi rap Nasheeds, ‘send me a cruise’ and ‘make Jihad with me’, that are often erroneously attributed to Abu Mansur are the work of another Muhajir, – another American Mujahid – but, of course, Abu Mansur would never say otherwise since the Nasheeds ‘perfect’ and complement his projected self-image.”

Omar has been quiet on Twitter the past few days. Did Hamza’s message really get to him? Was Hamza’s message really only a justification and cover for Shabaab to kill Omar? Only time will tell in this “Teen Movie” social media melodrama. Stay tuned.